Revival
Economists predict world economic revival in the
second half of 2005
The recent cool down of the world economy is expected to pick-up
over the next six months, according to the results of the latest
ICC/Ifo World Economic Survey (WES).
Assessments of the current economic situation by 1051 experts in 95
countries dropped to their lowest since a poll conducted in
February 2004, but were offset by the favourable expectations for
the next six months.
“This confirms the impression that the slowdown on world
economic growth since mid-2004 is a temporary disturbance and not
the beginning of a decline in world economic activity,” said
Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute for Economic
Research. “In the course of the second half of 2005, a further
revival of the world economy is expected, according to the WES
results.”
The quarterly poll by the International Chamber of Commerce and
the Munich-based Ifo Economic Research Institute saw its world
economic climate indicator stabilise at the level of the last
survey in April, after having
previously fallen five times in succession. At 97.5 it still
remained above its long-term average of 94 from 990-2004.
A regional breakdown shows that improvement in the world
economic indicator was especially marked in North America where the
assessments of the current economic situation and the expectations
for the next six
months both pointed upwards. The climate indicator in Asia remained
unchanged since the April survey. Much more confident expectations
were offset by a more cautious appraisal of the current economic
situation.
Only in Western Europe did the climate indicator continue to
decline. The clearly worsened appraisals of the current situation
were not compensated by the more favourable expectations. Within
Western Europe the
climate indicator remained unchanged in the euro area, but worsened
in Sweden, Switzerland and most strongly in the United Kingdom.
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